The undeniable crisis that’s not driving American voters
Warm water in the Gulf of Mexico that was predicted by climate scientists to feed harsher hurricanes helped supercharge September’s Hurricane Helene. That was before October’s monster storm, Milton, struck – the destruction of which will become clear in the days to come.
The science suggests Americans need to get used to more harsh weather events – extreme storms, warmer waters, wildfires and hotter weather. Evacuations and destruction will become more normal.
In this case, two epic storms in two weeks.
But climate change, to the extent people are talking about it, does not register this year as an “extremely important” presidential campaign issue, per a new poll.
Far from the top issue
In Gallup polling from late September, most of which was conducted just before Helene made landfall, registered voters were asked to rate the importance of 22 issues in this year’s election.
Just 5% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, along with slightly more than a third of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, said climate change was “extremely” important to their vote.
Climate change and transgender rights were the only two of the 22 issues listed by Gallup that half or fewer of respondents said were either “extremely” or “very” important to their presidential vote choice.
An issue doesn’t have to be top of mind to be potent. Transgender rights might not be the issue a majority of voters are citing as important, but it is the issue on which former President Donald Trump’s allies are focusing many of their ad dollars as they attack Vice President Kamala Harris in the final month of campaigning.
What’s driving voters instead?
Voters are most focused on the economy, with 52% of registered voters, driven by Republicans and Republican leaners, citing the economy as “extremely important” to their vote. The second-most-cited “extremely important” issue, democracy in the US, was driven by Democrats.
Here are the top five most-cited “extremely important” issues for Republicans and Republican leaners in the survey:
- Economy
- Immigration
- Terrorism and national security
- Crime
- Taxes
The top five for Democrats and Democratic leaners was completely different:
- Democracy in the US
- Types of Supreme Court justices candidates would pick
- Abortion
- Health care
- Education
That doesn’t mean climate change is not important to Americans. A CNN poll conducted by SSRS last December found nearly three-quarters of Americans, including half of Republicans, support policies to reduce climate pollution.
Then there are the conspiracy theories
In this moment when a climate change-driven disaster is disabling a portion of the country, misinformation is driving some of the conversation.
‘Crazy weather patterns’
Ohio Sen. JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, was asked about climate change during the vice presidential debate in early October, after it was clear that Helene had caused a major disaster.
Vance danced around the term – climate change – and instead admitted there are “crazy weather patterns.” He acknowledged the weird weather, which he said was more productive than getting into an argument about “weird science.”
But Vance’s remedy to the so-called weird weather is counterintuitive. He said Trump’s plan to vastly increase oil production is the answer because it would bring more energy production and manufacturing jobs to the US.
The Democratic vice presidential candidate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, was ineffective at drawing the obvious contrast – that the Inflation Reduction Act passed by Democrats is already meant to kickstart American manufacturing with a pivot to a greener economy.
Harris’ flip on fracking
Harris, meanwhile, has gone to great lengths to express that she does now support the practice of fracking, which climate activists oppose but which is important to the economy in the key state of Pennsylvania. In an interview with CNN in August, Harris argued the country can address the climate crisis without ending the practice of fracking.
“What I have seen is that we can grow and we can increase a thriving clean energy economy without banning fracking,” she told CNN’s Dana Bash, explaining her new position.
Still, admitting there is a climate crisis is a much different thing than refusing to say the words. In that recent Gallup polling, Harris had a 26 percentage point advantage over Trump when voters were asked who would do a better job addressing climate change. It was the largest spread in the poll. Trump’s advantage over Harris on his best issues, the economy and immigration, for instance, was 9 percentage points. Those are smaller advantages on issues that appear to be driving more voters.
